Comparison of three-dimensional heads-up system versus traditional microscopic system in medical education for vitreoretinal surgeries: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: To compare the value and efficiency of the three-dimensional (3D) heads-up surgical system and traditional microscopic (TM) system in teaching and learning vitreoretinal surgeries. METHODS: Twenty ophthalmologists and scrub nurses were recruited as teachers, and 45 junior ophthalmology residents and trainee doctors, trainee nurses, and medical students were recruited as observers. Each teacher and observer were assigned to both a 3D-assisted and TM-assisted vitreoretinal surgery and then asked to complete satisfaction questionnaires for both surgical systems at the end of each surgery. RESULTS: The 3D heads-up surgical system was rated significantly higher in most of the subscales and overall satisfaction score by both teachers and observers (P < 0.05). However, ratings for instrument adjustment were significantly higher in the TM group compared to the 3D group for junior ophthalmology residents and trainee doctors (6.1 ± 1.7 vs. 8.8 ± 1.1, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The 3D heads-up surgical system has great didactical value in the medical education of vitreoretinal surgeries, but it is important to consider the specific needs of different learners when choosing between the two systems. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

The Intention of Inhaled Medication Adherence Scale (IMAS): The Development of a New Instrument for Assessing Inhaled Medication Adherence Among Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Using Theory of Planned Behavior.

Purpose: Inhaled medication adherence is an important issue for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) because adhering to inhaled medications could substantially improve their health. However, patients with COPD may not be always adhere to the prescribed inhaled medications. Therefore, understanding the underlying reasons for patients with COPD adhering to inhaled medications is important. The present study used Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a theoretical framework to develop the Intention of Inhaled Medication Adherence Scale (IMAS) and assess its psychometric properties. Patients and Methods: After reviewing papers using the TPB to design psychometric scales and the TPB scale development guidelines, 28 items were generated for expert evaluation. Eight experts reported that the 28 items all had good content validity (content validity index ranged from 0.88 to 1.00 at item-level; and from 0.981 to 0.987 at scale-level) comprising four factors. Following initial development, 235 patients with COPD (mean age 73.12 years; 93.6% males) completed the IMAS via interview with a respiratory therapist and a research assistant. The four-factor structure of the IMAS was evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Results: Nine IMAS items were removed because of low factor loadings or offending estimates. The 19-item IMAS was confirmed as having a four-factor structure supported by the CFA results (comparative fit index=1.00; Tucker-Lewis index=1.00; root mean square error of approximation=0.00; standardized root mean square residual=0.06). Conclusion: The 19-item IMAS had satisfactory psychometric properties in construct validity. The 19-item IMAS is an instrument that could help healthcare providers understand potential factors associated with adherence to inhaled medications among people with COPD.

Elafin as a Prognostic Marker in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Pilot Study Using Three-Dimensional Imaging and Genomic Profiling.

Esophageal cancers are globally the sixth deadliest malignancy, with limited curative options. The association of high serum elafin levels, a molecule produced by epithelial cells, with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) risk is established, but its link to poor ESCC prognosis remains unclear. To explore this question, we first used three-dimensional confocal imaging to create a model of the spatial distribution of elafin inside locoregional ESCC tissues. Then, after analyzing data obtained from whole-genome microarrays for ESCC cell lines and their more invasive sublines, we performed in vitro experiments using RNA sequencing to identify possible elafin-related pathways. Three-dimensional tissue imaging showed elafin distributed as an interweaved-like fibrous structure in the stroma of tissue obtained from patients with high serum levels of elafin and poorer prognoses. By contrast, the signal was confined inside or around the tumor nest in patients who had lower serum levels and better survival. The analysis of a TCGA dataset revealed that higher levels of elafin mRNA in stage I-IIIA ESCC patients were associated with shorter survival. The in vitro studies revealed that elafin promoted ESCC cell proliferation, migration, and invasion via the epithelial-mesenchymal transition pathway. Thus, elafin inhibition could potentially be used therapeutically to improve survival in patients with locoregional ESCC.

Sex-specific interactive effect of melamine and DEHP on a marker of early kidney damage in Taiwanese adults: A national population-based study from the Taiwan Biobank.

Taiwan had the high incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) worldwide. Our objective was to examine associations between daily exposure of phthalates and melamine, two common nephrotoxins, and kidney damage risk in a well-established nationwide cohort. Study subjects were from Taiwan Biobank (TWB) with existing data of questionnaire and biochemical examinations. Average daily intake (ADI) levels of melamine and seven parental phthalates, including DEHP (di-2-ethylhexylphthalate), DiBP (Dibutyl phthalate), DnBP (Di-n-butyl phthalate), BBzP (Butyl benzyl phthalate), DEP (Diethyl phthalate), and DMP (Dimethyl phthalate) were estimated using a creatinine excretion-based model from urine melamine and 10 phthalate metabolites. Urine microalbumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) was used to represent for the outcome of kidney damage. Two statistical strategies were used: First, a weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression model to select the most important exposure variables of ADI levels of phthalates and melamine associated with ACR; Second, to examine effects of those most important exposure variables on ACR in multivariable linear regression models. In total, 1153 eligible adults were left for analyses. Of them, 591 (51.3%) and 562 (48.7%) were men and women, respectively, with a median age of 49 years old. By WQS, a significant and positive association was found between ADI of melamine and phthalates and ACR (ß = 0.14, p = 0.002). ADI levels of melamine had the highest weight (0.57), followed by DEHP (0.13). Next, examining the two most important exposures in association with ACR, we found that the higher the melamine and DEHP intakes, the higher the ACR levels were found. An interaction effect was also found between melamine and DEHP intakes on urine ACR (p = 0.015). This result was more prominent in men (p = 0.008) than in women (p = 0.651). Environmental co-exposure of melamine and DEHP can potentially affect ACR in the community-dwelling Taiwanese adult population.

Benchmark dose in the presence of coexposure to melamine and diethylhexyl phthalate and urinary renal injury markers in pregnant women.

Environmental exposures to mixtures of toxic chemicals have potential interaction effects that may lead to hazard index values exceeding one. However, current regulation levels, such as tolerable daily intake (TDI), are mostly based on experimental studies conducted with a single chemical compound. In this study, we assessed the relationships between melamine and di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) exposure and their coexposure with the early renal injury markers N-acetyl -D-glucosaminidase (NAG), albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), and microalbuminuria in 1236 pregnant women. Various generalized linear models with interaction terms and Bayesian kernel machine regression models were used for the (co-)exposure response associations. We derived the benchmark dose (BMD) and the corresponding one-sided 95% confidence bound BMDL based on the estimated (covariate-adjusted) average daily intake of melamine and DEHP metabolites measured in spot urine of the women collected during the third trimester. Given a benchmark response of 0.1, the BMDL level of melamine (DEHP) exposure on NAG (ACR, microalbuminuria) was 2.67 (11.20, 4.45) µg/kg_bw/day, and it decreased to as low as 1.46 (3.83, 2.73) µg/kg_bw/day when considering coexposure to DEHP (melamine) up to the 90th percentile. Both the exposure threshold levels of melamine and DEHP for early renal injuries in pregnant women were several-fold to one order lower than the current recommended TDIs by the WHO and the US FDA and EPA and were even lower considering coexposure. Because of concurrent exposures in real-world environments, more stringent regulation levels are recommended in susceptible populations, such as pregnant women, due to potential synergistic mixture effects.

Avatar-like body imaging of dermal exposure to melamine in factory workers analyzed by ambient mass spectrometry.

Ambient mass spectrometry thermal desorption-electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry (TD-ESI/MS) can rapidly identify chemicals without pretreatment of biological samples. This study used a rapid semi-quantitative TD-ESI/MS screening technique for the probe skin sampling of melamine workers occupationally exposed to different ambient melamine concentrations to create avatar-like body images, which were then used to study temporal and dynamic changes in nephrotoxic melamine exposure. We enrolled four voluntary melamine workers from one factory, each from one of four worksites. Melamine exposure was highest in manufacturing and molding, followed by grinding and polishing, packing, and administration, the lowest. Skin samples were collected Friday (end-of-shift) and Monday (pre-shift). Early morning one-spot urine samples were also collected right after skin sampling. 2198 probe skin samples were collected and subjected to semi-quantitative TD-ESI/MS analyses of melamine chemical within 40 h. After normalization, converted body image scores revealed exposure to be highest in the manufacturing worker on Friday and lowest in the administrative worker on Monday. The absolute differences (Friday minus Monday) of normalized body image scores were all significantly positive in each individual worker and across all four workers (permutation test, all p-values < 0.002). The slope estimates of the linear regression line between body image scores and urinary melamine levels were 0.81 (p-value = 0.008). We concluded that this fast and non-invasive technique can potentially be used to study temporal and dynamic changes in exposure to occupational hazards. A future study of developing an automatic and reproducible TD-ESI/MS sampling platform is needed.

Longitudinal changes in oxidative stress and early renal injury in children exposed to DEHP and melamine in the 2011 Taiwan food scandal.

In 2011, phthalates, mainly di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), were found to have been added to a variety of foods in Taiwan, increasing the risk of microalbuminuria in children. Exposure to melamine perhaps modifies that risk. This prospective cohort study investigates whether renal injury resulting from exposure to DEHP-tainted foods from the 2011 Taiwan Food Scandal is reversed over time. The temporal and interactive effects of past daily DEHP intake, current daily DEHP intake, and urinary melamine levels on oxidative stress and renal injury were also examined. Two hundred possibly DEHP-affected children (aged < 18 years) were enrolled in the first survey wave (August 2012-January 2013), with 170 and 159 children in the second (July 2014-February 2015) and third waves (May 2016-October 2016), respectively. The first wave comprised questionnaires that were used to collect information about possible past daily DEHP intake from DEHP-tainted foods. One-spot first morning urine samples were collected to measure melamine levels, phthalate metabolites, and markers indicating oxidative stress (malondialdehyde and 8-oxo-2'-deoxyguanosine), and renal injury (albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) and N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase) in all three waves. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) modeling revealed that both past daily DEHP intake and time might affect urinary ACR. However, most interactions were negative and significant correlation was observed only during the second wave (P for interaction = 0.014) in the group with the highest past daily DEHP intake (>50 µg/kg/day). Urinary melamine levels were found to correlate significantly with both urinary ACR and oxidative stress markers. The highest impact associated with exposure to DEHP-tainted foods in increasing urinary ACR of children was observed during the first wave, and the effect may partially diminish over time. These results suggest that continuous monitoring of renal health and other long-term health consequences is required in individuals who were affected by the scandal in 2011.

Melamine and oxalate coexposure induces early kidney tubular injury through mitochondrial aberrations and oxidative stress.

Exposure to melamine, which is ubiquitous in daily life, is linked to adverse kidney outcomes. The melamine tolerable daily intake in humans is based on the no-observed-effect-level (NOEL) established in a single-toxicant murine model. However, humans are often simultaneously exposed to multiple environmental nephrotoxicants. The NOEL of melamine during coexposure with other toxicants needs to be evaluated. Oxalate is a potentially nephrotoxic terminal metabolite, and hyperoxaluria is reportedly associated with chronic kidney disease. We explored whether these two potential nephrotoxicants can interact and enhance kidney injury. We established a Sprague-Dawley rat model of coexposure to the melamine NOEL (63 mg/kg/day) and 2% hydroxy-L-proline (HLP, an oxalate precursor) in drinking water to simulate human environmental melamine exposure. Melamine/oxalate coexposure increased proximal tubular cell mitochondrial reactive oxygen species levels, lipid peroxidation and oxidative DNA damage. The degrees of mitochondrial damage, tubular cell apoptosis, tubular atrophy, and interstitial fibrosis were elevated in coexposed rat kidneys. The evidence indicated that exposure to the melamine NOEL can cause renal tubular injury via oxidative stress and that this effect may be enhanced via interaction of melamine with other environmental factors, such as oxalate. Thus, melamine risk assessment and toxicity prevention should be conducted carefully in different susceptible populations.

Melamine exposure threshold in early chronic kidney disease patients - A benchmark dose approach.

Environmental melamine exposure has been associated with deteriorating kidney function in early-stage chronic kidney disease patients. In this study, a benchmark dose (BMD) approach was used to establish melamine exposure threshold in 293 patients with eGFR≥30 ml/min per 1.73 m2. The patients were enrolled 2006-2010 and followed-up for a median of 7.0 years to monitor kidney outcomes. Average daily intakes (AvDI) of melamine were estimated using one-spot urine samples collected at enrollment. BMDs and corresponding one-sided 95% lower bound (BMDLs) were derived using established dose-response models relating estimated AvDIs and dichotomous kidney outcomes: doubling of serum creatine levels, eGFR decreased > 3 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year, and >30% decline in eGFR during the first 2 years. In addition, survival time to doubling of serum creatinine and eGFR decline over time were assessed as continuous endpoints. Given a benchmark response of 0.10, BMDLs ranged from 0.74 to 2.03 µg/kg_bw/day after Bayesian model averaging, a range one to two orders lower than the current WHO recommended tolerable daily intake of 200 µg/kg_bw/day and the US FDA's 63 µg/kg_bw/day. Our results suggest that early-stage CKD patients should strictly refrain from using melamine tableware and related melamine-made products.

A probabilistic approach for benchmark dose of melamine exposure for a marker of early renal dysfunction in patients with calcium urolithiasis.

Environmental exposure to melamine has been associated with early renal injury in urolithiasis patients even when urinary concentrations of melamine are low. The aim of this study was to derive a benchmark dose (BMD) for melamine for urolithiasis patients. To do this, one-spot urine sample from 309 participants was obtained to measure urinary melamine and N-acetyl ß-D-glucosaminidase (NAG), an early renal damage biomarker. The participants were then classified into four exposure groups based on the outcomes of melamine tableware usage questionnaire. A beta distribution of urinary excretion fraction for each group was assumed to estimate their average daily intakes (AvDIs) of melamine. The BMD and the corresponding one-sided 95% lower bound (BMDL) was then derived based on Bayesian model averaging of alternative regression models between the participants' NAG levels and their estimated AvDIs, adjusting for age, gender, and other covariates. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations were used for all the estimates. With a benchmark response of 0.10, the simulated BMDL of 4.89 µg/kg-bw/day for melamine exposure threshold was much lower than the WHO's current recommended tolerable daily intake of 200 µg/kg_bw/day and the US FDA's 63 µg/kg_bw/day. The current regulation level of melamine might not safeguard urolithiasis patients from further deterioration of renal function.

Phthalate exposure and prostate cancer in a population-based nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Phthalic acid esters are established as endocrine disruptors. The study aimed to evaluate the association between urinary phthalate metabolites and prostate cancer occurrence. METHODS: The study was based on the Taiwan Community-Based Cancer Screening Program, which was set up in 1991-1992 and followed periodically. By 2010, 80 incident prostate cancer cases were identified in the 12,020 men. For each case, 2 controls were randomly selected, matched by age (±3 years), urine collection date (±3 months), and residential township. Frequently used phthalate metabolites from the urine samples were quantified by liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. Logistic regression was conducted to assess the association between the exposure levels and prostate cancer occurrence. RESULTS: Exposure to di (2-ethylhexyl), butyl-benzyl and di-isobutyl phthalates (DEHP, BBzP, DiBP) was positively associated with prostate cancer in men with waist circumference (WC) ≥90 cm but not in the leans. Odds ratio for the DEHP metabolite summary score (upper tertile compared to the rest) and prostate cancer were 7.76 (95% CI = 1.95-30.9) for WC ≥ 90 cm. CONCLUSIONS: DEHP, BBzP, and DiBP exposure were associated with prostate cancer occurrence in abdominally obese men. The main limitation remains the lack of mechanistic experiments and comparable toxicological data.

A benchmark dose study of prenatal exposure to di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate and behavioral problems in children.

INTRODUCTION: Prenatal exposure to di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) has been reported to be associated with adverse effects on neurodevelopment that yield behavior syndromes in young children with an estimated median exposure lower than the currently recommended tolerable daily intake (TDI) and reference dose (RfD). OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to derive the benchmark dose for prenatal exposure to DEHP for the neurodevelopmental health in children. METHODS: A total of 122 mother-child pairs from the Taiwan Maternal and Infant Cohort Study were analyzed for the dose-response relationship between maternal exposure to DEHP and children's behavioral syndromes evaluated at 8 years (n = 122, 2009), 11 years (n = 96, 2012), and 14 years (n = 78, 2015) of age. We employed a multivariate regression model to assess the statistical associations between the estimated maternal average daily intake of DEHP and child's individual CBCL scores for boys and girls at each separate age, followed by a mixed model for all the children across three ages accounting for individual variations. We then employed structural equation models by combining the children's specific behavioral problem scores at different ages and obtained a simulated overall latent score in relation to maternal exposure. Based on the established dose-response relationship, we derived the benchmark dose (BMD) and the lower limit (BMDL). RESULTS: Associations of maternal DEHP exposure (median 4.54µg/kg_bw/day) with the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) scores were all significant, except for somatic complaints, adjusting for child's age, gender, IQ, and family income. The BMDL, given a benchmark response of 0.10 (0.05) and a background response of 0.05, was 6.01 (2.16) µg/kg_bw/dayfor an integrated CBCL score. CONCLUSIONS: The current TDI (RfD) of 50 (20) µg/kg_bw/day for DEHP might not protect pregnant women for their children from behavioral problems. There remains the lack of comparable toxicological data. Further investigations are needed.

Exposure sources and their relative contributions to urinary phthalate metabolites among children in Taiwan.

Phthalate exposure is omnipresent and known to have developmental and reproductive effects in children. The aim of this study was to determine the phthalate exposure sources and their relative contributions among children in Taiwan. During the first wave of the Risk Assessment of Phthalate Incident in Taiwan (RAPIT), in 2012, we measured 8 urinary phthalate metabolites in 226 children aged 1-11 years old and in 181 children from the same cohort for the wave 2 study in 2014. A two-stage statistical analysis approach was adopted. First, a stepwise regression model was used to screen 80 questions that explored the exposure frequency and lifestyle for potential associations. Second, the remaining questions with positive regression coefficients were grouped into the following 6 exposure categories: plastic container/packaging, food, indoor environment, personal care products, toys, and eating out. A mixed model was then applied to assess the relative contributions of these categories for each metabolite. The use of plastic container or food packaging were dominant exposure sources for mono-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (MEHP), mono-2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl phthalate (MEHHP), mono-2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl phthalate (MEOHP), and mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP). The indoor environment was a major exposure source of mono-methyl phthalate (MMP), mono-benzyl phthalate (MBzP), and mono-isobutyl phthalate (MiBP). The consumption of seafood showed a significant correlation with MEHP. The children's modified dietary behavior and improved living environment in the second study wave were associated with lower phthalate metabolite levels, showing that phthalate exposures can be effectively reduced.

Exposure Estimation for Risk Assessment of the Phthalate Incident in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: In May 2011, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalates (DEHP) and, to a lesser extent, di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP) were found to have been illegally used for many years in Taiwan as clouding agents in foods including sports drinks, juice beverages, tea drinks, fruit jam/nectar/jelly, and health or nutrient supplements. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the DEHP exposure for the study participants for the follow-up epidemiological study and health risk assessment. METHODS: A total of 347 individuals possibly highly exposed to phthalate-tainted foods participated in the study. Exposure assessment was performed based on the participants' responses to a structured questionnaire, self-report of exposure history, urinary metabolite concentrations, and DEHP concentration information in 2449 food records. A Bayesian statistical approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was employed to deal with the uncertainties in the DEHP concentrations of the contaminated foods and the participants' likelihood of being exposed. RESULTS: An estimated 37% and 15% of children younger than 12 years old were exposed to DEHP at medium (20-50 µg / kg_bw / day) and high AvDIs (50-100 µg / kg_bw / day), respectively, prior to the episode (9% and 3% in adults, respectively). Moreover, 11% of children and 1% of adults were highly exposed (> 100 µg / kg_bw / day), with a maximum of 414.1 µg / kg_bw / day and 126.4 µg / kg_bw / day, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The phthalate exposure-associated adverse health effects for these participants warrant further investigation. The estimation procedure may be applied to other exposure assessment with various sources of uncertainties.

The effects of phthalate and nonylphenol exposure on body size and secondary sexual characteristics during puberty.

BACKGROUND: Some phthalic acid esters (PAEs) and nonylphenol (NP) are endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) that are widely used in consumer products. Consequently, the general population is exposed simultaneously to both groups of chemicals. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the single- and co-exposure effects of PAEs (DMP, DEP, DnBP, DiBP, BBzP, and DEHP) and NP on obesity and pubertal maturity to compare the body sizes of general adolescents with the complainants of the phthalate-tainted foods scandal that occurred in Taiwan. METHODS: This study included 270 general adolescents aged 6.5-15.0 years and 38 complainants aged 6.5-8.5 years. Nine metabolites of the five PAEs and of NP were measured in urine. We used a questionnaire to evaluate pubertal maturity, measured anthropometric indices (APs) to assess body size, and collected urine samples to measure the two groups of chemicals. RESULTS: We found that urinary PAE metabolite concentrations (specifically, metabolites of DEP, DnBP, DiBP, and DEHP) were positively associated with the APs for abdominal obesity (including skinfold thickness, waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio, and waist-to-hip) and indicated a dose-response relationship. Mono-methyl phthalate (MMP) exposure was inversely associated with pubarche among boys. The daily intake of DEHP in general adolescents exceeded the reference doses (RfD-20 µg/kgbw/day) and tolerable daily intake (TDI-50 µg/kgbw/day) by 3.4% and 0.4%, respectively. No associations were observed between NP exposure or co-exposure and the APs or pubertal maturity. No significant differences were observed between general adolescents and the complainants with regard to weight, height, or BMI. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that PAE (specifically, DEP, DnBP, DiBP, and DEHP) exposure is associated with abdominal obesity in adolescents and that the APs for abdominal obesity are more sensitive than BMI for measuring obesity among adolescents. We suggest that the RfD and TDI for PAEs should be revised to provide sufficient protection.

Estimation of the exposure of the UK population to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy agent through dietary intake during the period 1980 to 1996.

Although the incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has declined to 1 since 2012 in the UK, uncertainty remains regarding possible future cases and the size of the subclinical population that may cause secondary transmission of the disease through blood transfusion. Estimating the number of individuals who were exposed to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectious agent and may be susceptible to vCJD will help to clarify related public health concerns and plan strategies. In this paper, we explore this estimate by describing the probability of potential exposure due to dietary intake throughout the BSE epidemic period from 1980 to 1996 as a stochastic Poisson process. We estimate the age- and gender-specific exposure intensities in food categories of beef and beef-containing dishes, burgers and kebabs, pies, and sausages, separating the two periods of 1980-1989 and 1990-1996 due to the specified bovine offal legislation of 1989. The estimated total number of (living) exposed individuals during each period is 5,089,027 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,514,963-6,410,317), which was obtained by multiplying the population size of different birth cohorts by the probability of exposure via dietary intake and the probability of survival until the end of 2013. The estimated number is approximately doubled, assuming a contamination rate of [Formula: see text]. Among those individuals estimated, 31,855 (95% CI 26,849-42,541) are susceptible to infection. We also examined the threshold hypothesis by fitting an extreme-value distribution to the estimated infectious dose of the exposed individuals and obtained a threshold estimate of 13.7 bID50 (95% CI 6.6-26.2 bID50) (Weibull). The results provide useful information on potential carriers of prion disease who may pose a threat of infection via blood transfusion and thus provide insight into the likelihood of new incidents of vCJD occurring in the future.

Consumption of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) contaminated beef and the risk of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

To date, the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) risk assessments that have been performed have primarily focused on predicting future vCJD cases in the United Kingdom, which underwent a bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic between 1980 and 1996. Surveillance of potential BSE cases was also used to assess vCJD risk, especially in other BSE-prevalent EU countries. However, little is known about the vCJD risk for uninfected individuals who accidentally consume BSE-contaminated meat products in or imported from a country with prevalent BSE. In this article, taking into account the biological mechanism of abnormal prion PrP(res) aggregation in the brain, the probability of exposure, and the expected amount of ingested infectivity, we establish a stochastic mean exponential growth model of lifetime exposure through dietary intake. Given the findings that BSE agents behave similarly in humans and macaques, we obtained parameter estimates from experimental macaque data. We then estimated the accumulation of abnormal prions to assess lifetime risk of developing clinical signs of vCJD. Based on the observed number of vCJD cases and the estimated number of exposed individuals during the BSE epidemic period from 1980 to 1996 in the United Kingdom, an exposure threshold hypothesis is proposed. Given the age-specific risk of infection, the hypothesis explains the observations very well from an extreme-value distribution fitting of the estimated BSE infectivity exposure. The current BSE statistics in the United Kingdom are provided as an example.